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- This page: http://www.globalissues.org/article/400/media-propaganda-and-iraq.
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Naturally the common people don't want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. ... Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.
— General Herman Goering, President of German Reichstag and Nazi Party, Commander of Luftwaffe during World War II, April 18, 1946. (This quote is said to have been made during the Nuremburg Trials, but in fact, while during the time of the trials, was made in private to an Allied intelligence officer, later published in the book, Nuremburg Diary.)
Since the Persian Gulf War in 1991, there have been additional conflicts and confrontations with Iraq, such as the bombing campaign of 1998, and the recent events amidst the so-called "war on terror".
The United States and Britain primarily have been highlighting that Iraq poses an immediate and grave threat to the world.
A large segment of the public in numerous countries has remained skeptical about the claims, or not supportive of an all out war. The challenge, for these two countries therefore, has been to wage and win a propaganda war to convince citizens that action is needed urgently.
This web page has the following sub-sections:
- Media Spin and Official Propaganda During Gulf War in 1991
- Bush Claimed Iraq was "six months away from developing a weapon" Citing Non-existent Report
- Saddam Hussein was an Ally when he used Chemical Weapons on his own People
- CIA and Bush Administration Appear At Odds on Level of Threat
- Resolution 1441, the United Nations and the 'Diplomacy'
- The State of Iraq's Weapons Programs?
- Inspection Process So Far Reveals No Reason For War
- No Nuclear Weapons Program
- Iraq Declaration
- Nuclear Documents at Scientists Home
- Discovery of Empty "Chemical Warheads" No Big Deal Says Blix
- Short Shelf Life of Some Chemical Weapons
- Getting Information from Defectors
- Bush and Blair Not Cooperating On Sharing Information
- Unmanned Drones
- Iraq Missiles
- Some Intelligence is Not Very Intelligent
- Is it Worth a War?
- Some Examples of Propaganda
- The Blair Dossier: Proof or Propaganda to build the case against Iraq?
- Weapons Inspectors Were Not Kicked Out in 1998, but Withdrawn
- Tony Blair Faces a Skeptical TV Audience
- Subtle Propaganda
- Bush's State of the Union Speech on Iraq
- Colin Powell Presentation of Evidence Before U.N. Security Council
- Playing the Morality Card
- Mixed Reactions from "International Community"
- Large Anti-war Protests
- Proposed Second U.N. Resolution By Bush and Blair
- Draft Resolution Designed to Fail and Therefore Allow War
- Bush/Blair Dropped Second War Resolution due to International Opposition
- Not International 'Deadlock' But Opposition to US/UK
- Blaming France
- Members All Knew That Serious Consequences in 1441 Meant War, Even Though US and UK Themselves Said it did Not
- Is War Legal or Illegal
- War Is Not the Only Option; Resolution 377
- War Is Not Only Option; Lack Of Patience Is Not Enough of a Reason for War
- Major Resignations
- Considering the Option of Using Nuclear Weapons against Iraq
- Learning from Past Lessons of Propaganda
Media Spin and Official Propaganda During Gulf War in 1991
During the Gulf War of 1991, the United States had imposed military control on the information, which meant that the media portrayal would not have given a complete picture.
There was a lot of bad intelligence or outright disinformation, as Christian Science Monitor highlights, that contributed to supporting a war against Iraq in 1991. In addition, a lot of PR and spin was used, and is currently being used in the more recent crisis.
One often-presented fact was that there were remarkably almost no casualties. This led to claims of a new type of war that could be successfully fought. It was often not clarified how many Iraqis had been killed. Estimates vary, but most suggest around 50,000 to 100,000 Iraqi troops. In terms of civilian deaths, estimates are difficult, some estimates suggesting "13,000 civilians were killed directly by American and allied forces, and about 70,000 civilians died subsequently from war-related damage to medical facilities and supplies, the electric power grid, and the water system" as reported by Business Week (February 6, 2003). Side NoteThe Business Week article quoted discusses a researcher, Beth Osborne, who's actual report you can see at this link. It was also interesting to note that when asked by the New York Times, Secretary of State, Colin Powell, who was the highest ranking military officer, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during the Gulf War, said "It's really not a number I'm terribly interested in". (New York Times, March 23, 1991) The original NY Times article couldn't be located on line, but a Google Search verifies this from many sources. Subsequent U.N. Sanctions have caused a further million deaths, half of which were children. Yet, when 30 to 50 people are killed together by the "enemy" or other nations, then that is often described as a massacre by the same media institutions.
As an example of media manipulation, here is a quote from an article on journalism and reporting on peace and conflict:
"[The typical] "justification" tactics [used] by proponents of military intervention ... brought us the entirely false reports, in 1990, that Iraqi soldiers were killing babies in Kuwait City by switching off hospital incubators - brought to us by Washington PR firm Hill and Knowlton. Maggie O'Kane [whose investigation into media manipulations leading up to and during the Gulf War of 1991 won the Cameron award when published in the Guardian and was broadcast on UK's Channel Four] recounted her meeting with nurses at the hospital who were utterly mystified by these stories.
The source turned out to be the fifteen-year-old daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to Washington, who was presented to the US Congress as a nurse but, in fact, had not been to Kuwait in years. As O'Kane says: "There's always a dead babies story." The effect is to demonise the enemy and create a sense of urgency which admits no time for diplomacy."
— The Peace Journalist Option, Poiesis.org, August 1997
One of the concerns with this is what efforts officials and governments may go through to emotionally reach out to their citizens for support.
This does not in any way say that the Iraqi regime is completely innocent of all accusations. It just puts into perspective the unaccountability of some western reports and the process of propaganda that western media is also a part of. (And its an example of the media's influence itself, that one has to defend the need to disprove a fact presented about the "enemy". The automatic conclusion from the mainstream has been that one who critiques them must therefore be "one of them". That is a narrow view that does not allow diversification of the discourse. Dom Helda Camara's famous quote captures this quite well: "When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food, they call me a communist.")
The following example, from the above-mentioned article by Christian Science Monitor is worth quoting because of the ramifications that unaccountable propaganda can have:
Shortly before US strikes began in the Gulf War, for example, the St. Petersburg Times asked two experts to examine the satellite images of the Kuwait and Saudi Arabia border area taken in mid-September 1990, a month and a half after the Iraqi invasion. The experts, including a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst who specialized in desert warfare, pointed out the US build-up - jet fighters standing wing-tip to wing-tip at Saudi bases - but were surprised to see almost no sign of the Iraqis.
"That [Iraqi buildup] was the whole justification for Bush sending troops in there, and it just didn't exist," Ms. Heller says. Three times Heller contacted the office of Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney (now vice president) for evidence refuting the Times photos or analysis - offering to hold the story if proven wrong.
The official response: "Trust us." To this day, the Pentagon's photographs of the Iraqi troop buildup remain classified.
...
John MacArthur, publisher of Harper's Magazine and author of "Second Front: Censorship and Propaganda in the Gulf War," says that considering the number of senior officials shared by both Bush administrations, the American public should bear in mind the lessons of Gulf War propaganda.
— Scott Peterson, In war, some facts less factual, Christian Science Monitor, September 6, 2002. (Emphasis Added)
People's support was gained due to propaganda. One has to wonder if without propaganda the war, to the extent that it was then carried out, could have still been justified and supported by the masses. For a long time, there has been concern at a buildup specifically for war. This requires propaganda to build support and justification. Yet, it seems that whether successful or not, it has been perhaps more challenging to justify war on Iraq this time, than for previous conflicts.
Bush Claimed Iraq was "six months away from developing a weapon" Citing Non-existent Report
George Bush has made some false claims as part of the campaign to get support for war on Iraq. For example, at Camp David on September 7, 2002 he cited a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) saying that "a report came out of the Atomic -- the IAEA -- that they were six months away from developing a weapon. I don't know what more evidence we need."
Yet, as the Washington Post reports (October 22, 2002 or alternative location), "The IAEA did issue a report in 1998, around the time weapons inspectors were denied access to Iraq for the final time, but the report made no such assertion. It declared: 'Based on all credible information to date, the IAEA has found no indication of Iraq having achieved its program goal of producing nuclear weapons or of Iraq having retained a physical capability for the production of weapon-useable nuclear material or having clandestinely obtained such material.' The report said Iraq had been six to 24 months away from nuclear capability before the 1991 Gulf War."
The Washington Post does continue on to point out that, "The White House said that Bush 'was imprecise on this' and that the source was U.S. intelligence, not the IAEA." Hence it might be that Bush did indeed have a slip of the tongue and gave credit to the wrong agency and that if it was U.S. intelligence that perhaps it is still true that he is some 6 months away (from Sept 2002) of "developing a weapon."
However, another paper, the Washington Times, also highlighting that the IAEA denies the above, points out (September 27, 2002) that the White House said Bush was referring to a 1991 report (which also seems to contradict the above claim of being a U.S. intelligence source), "'He's referring to 1991 there', said Deputy Press Secretary Scott McClellan. 'In '91, there was a report saying that after the war they found out they were about six months away.' Mr. Gwozdecky [the IAEA's chief spokesman] said no such report was ever issued by the IAEA in 1991."
In addition, Yes Magazine highlights that,
Most observers believe that the threat is less than it was in 1991, when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The former head of the UN inspection team, Scott Ritter, states that 90 to 95 percent of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction were confirmed destroyed and that there is no evidence that Iraq retained any of its weapons or capacity for producing them. Because there have been no inspections since 1998, no one knows for sure just what Iraq has. Since 1991, Iraq has not used weapons of mass destruction nor engaged in war with any other country. Due to 12 years of UN sanctions, Iraq is now an impoverished country, making a large-scale weapons program far less feasible, Ritter said.
— 10 Questions Americans Are Asking as the US Prepares for War, Yes Magazine, 10 October 2002
And as John Pilger adds back in April 2002:
"Few countries have had 93 per cent of their major weapons capability destroyed. This was reported by Rolf Ekeus, the chairman of the United Nations body authorised to inspect and destroy Iraq's arsenal following the Gulf War in 1991. UN inspectors certified that 817 out of the 819 Iraqi long-range missiles were destroyed. In 1999, a special panel of the Security Council recorded that Iraq's main biological weapons facilities (supplied originally by the US and Britain) 'have been destroyed and rendered harmless.'
As for Saddam Hussein's "nuclear threat," the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iraq's nuclear weapons programme had been eliminated "efficiently and effectively". The IAEA inspectors still travel to Iraq and in January [2002] reported full Iraqi compliance. Blair and Bush never mention this when they demand that "the weapons inspectors are allowed back". Nor do they remind us that the UN inspectors were never expelled by the Iraqis, but withdrawn only after it was revealed they had been infiltrated by US intelligence."
— John Pilger, How dare George Bush preach peace to Israel when he's meeting Blair to plan war on Iraq, April 5 2002
As part of the United Nations weapons inspections process, on January 27, 2003, Mohammed El Baradei reported back to the U.N. Security Council that there was nothing to suggest a clandestine nuclear weapons programme in Iraq. (More about this and the U.N. weapons inspections process under resolution 1441 is discussed below.)
Saddam Hussein was an Ally when he used Chemical Weapons on his own People
Given the above from Yes Magazine, it seems unlikely that in four years since 1998, with some 90-95 percent destruction of weapons of mass destruction capability that Saddam Hussein could get back to pre-Gulf War levels or even a sufficient level of threat. One must also consider that the Gulf War left much of the military and civilian infrastructure destroyed. The subsequent sanctions and various bombings since have also been effective in this aspect. Prior to the Gulf War, when Hussein was at his strongest militarily, the development and use of such weapons required a lot of investment and support. Much of this actually came from countries such as Germany, U.S., U.K. and others. This included shipments of biological weapons from the U.S. to Iraq to use against Iran in the 1980s, up to 1993 when Clinton was in office, almost 2 years after the Gulf War had ended. (This is also discussed further below.)
Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons on his own people, which we are always reminded of, occurred during the time that Hussein was an ally of the United States, and was armed by the U.S. (which we are hardly reminded of).
The New York Times reported (August 18, 2002) that the Reagan administration had provided Iraq with critical battle planning assistance in waging decisive battles of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. While this story was also re-reported by international media, as William Blum points out, this revelation on the whole doesn't reveal anything new, and indeed omitted anything about "the furnishing of chemical and biological materials by the United States to Iraq which markedly enhanced Iraq's CBW [Chemical and Biological Weapons] capability."
Furthermore, as Dilip Hiro points out in The Observer (September 1, 2002), if concerns about chemical weapon usage was real, why was there no concern, or even condemnation at the time it actually happened, when it was a well-known incident? (Instead, at that time, Hiro points out that the response was to arm and support Hussein even more. Iraq was supported by the U.S. after its previous ally in the region, Iran, had a revolution where one authoritarian regime -- the U.S. puppet, the Shah -- was overthrown by another authoritarian regime, the Ayatollah and his religious variant, threatening a loss of some influence in the region, and when Iran went one step further and took American hostages.)
Independent journalist Jeremy Scahill also revealed the extent to which Saddam Hussein was supported. The Institute for Public Accuracy, mentioning Scahill points out that, " In August [2002], Scahill broke the story of Donald Rumsfeld's meeting with Saddam Hussein and other Iraqi officials in Baghdad in 1983 and again in 1984. Scahill said today: 'Just as Iraq was beginning its use of chemical weapons, Rumsfeld was not trying to stop it, but was restoring diplomatic relations. Now, Iraq's use of these weapons is being used as a pretext for massive invasion.'" Scahill, in a report, observes that
In 1988, Saddam's forces attacked Kurdish civilians with poisonous gas from Iraqi helicopters and planes. U.S. intelligence sources told The LA Times in 1991, they "believe that the American-built helicopters were among those dropping the deadly bombs."
In response to the gassing, sweeping sanctions were unanimously passed by the US Senate that would have denied Iraq access to most US technology. The measure was killed by the White House.
— Jeremy Scahill, The Saddam in Rumsfeld's Closet, CommonDreams.org News Center, August 2, 2002
As if to answer Dilip Hiro's question above, the Scahill report also adds that "in an article about Rumsfeld's aspirations to run for the 1988 Republican Presidential nomination, the Chicago Tribune Magazine listed among Rumsfeld's achievements helping to "reopen U.S. relations with Iraq." The Tribune failed to mention that this help came at a time when, according to the US State Department, Iraq was actively using chemical weapons."
While the mainstream media has often been criticized for failing to mention this often and without sufficient context, occassionally it has done so. The Washington Post for example, at the end of 2002 provides some detail and also points out that "U.S. Had Key Role in Iraq Buildup". And the Post adds:
The story of U.S. involvement with Saddam Hussein in the years before his 1990 attack on Kuwait -- which included large-scale intelligence sharing, supply of cluster bombs through a Chilean front company, and facilitating Iraq's acquisition of chemical and biological precursors -- is a topical example of the underside of U.S. foreign policy. It is a world in which deals can be struck with dictators, human rights violations sometimes overlooked, and accommodations made with arms proliferators, all on the principle that the "enemy of my enemy is my friend."
Throughout the 1980s, Hussein's Iraq was the sworn enemy of Iran, then still in the throes of an Islamic revolution. U.S. officials saw Baghdad as a bulwark against militant Shiite extremism and the fall of pro-American states such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and even Jordan -- a Middle East version of the "domino theory" in Southeast Asia. That was enough to turn Hussein into a strategic partner and for U.S. diplomats in Baghdad to routinely refer to Iraqi forces as "the good guys," in contrast to the Iranians, who were depicted as "the bad guys."
A review of thousands of declassified government documents and interviews with former policymakers shows that U.S. intelligence and logistical support played a crucial role in shoring up Iraqi defenses against the "human wave" attacks by suicidal Iranian troops. The administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush authorized the sale to Iraq of numerous items that had both military and civilian applications, including poisonous chemicals and deadly biological viruses, such as anthrax and bubonic plague.
— Michael Dobbs, U.S. Had Key Role in Iraq Buildup, Washington Post, December 30, 2002; Page A01
Side Note
The mention of the "domino theory" in Southeast Asia and a similar effect in the Middle East, is an important point in understanding the geopolitical framework, and the underlying causes of post World War II global politics and power struggles. Fighting communism has been the most commonly remembered reason. But, the aftermath saw virtually the entire colonial world eventually break free from imperial rulers, having been weakened attempting to destroy each other. In this context, powerful nations were fearful of losing more influence and dominance. If a country could successfully develop, independent of western, or even Soviet influence, then others might catch on to the idea! This is detailed a bit more on this site's section on Middle East resources. Although that section is mostly in the context of the Middle East, additional information is available there to other sources for more on this geopolitical context.
CIA and Bush Administration Appear At Odds on Level of Threat
The above-mentioned Washington Post article also highlights other inaccuracies, such as claims by Bush of Iraq having unmanned aircraft that could be used "for missions targeting the United States". However, the Post also points out that the CIA itself had said that this was more an experiment or attempt, and that if there was any threat, it was to neighbors, and international military forces in the region, not mentioning sufficient range to reach the United States.
Trying To Find a Link With Terrorism
The Australian paper, The Age noted (September 11, 2002) that the CIA failed to find a link between Iraq and terrorism.
- In addition, "European anti-terrorist officials warned that an invasion of Iraq will worsen the threat of Islamic terrorism", as reported by the Los Angeles Times (January 30, 2003).
- The Bush Administration has constantly tried to highlight a link, in an attempt to muster support and play on the concerns of citizens regarding terrorists. As a propaganda ploy, connecting Iraq with Al Qaeda would be ideal.
- The Age article also points out that the Bush Administration will still try to develop a case to link terrorism and Iraq. Yet, Daniel Benjamin, who previously served on the U.S. National Security Council (1994 to 1999) says in a New York Times op-ed that Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda Are Not Allies.
- An audio recording, allegedly by Osama Bin Laden, in February 2003, was used as further evidence by the
U.S. of links.
Yet, this appears to be highly questionable
On February 12, 2003, just a few days before a key presentation by United Nations chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, and amidst growing skepticism and even sheer hostility to the idea of war with Iraq, an audio tape, allegedly of Osama Bin Laden, was broadcast by Al Jazeera. The recording called Muslims to rise up, and was supportive of Iraqi people in the event of war, but also said that the people of Iraq should rise up to oust Saddam Hussein.
Yet, U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell and others still jumped on this to point to a strong link between Al Qaeda and Iraq, even though most others do not believe this to be the case and because Bin Laden had supported the idea of killing Saddam Hussein, which is not exactly what allies would do!
This occurred amidst such a heightened security alert, that military troops were seen guarding London's Heathrow Airport, even in tanks, and the U.S. also went on high alert, with both nations saying they expected an attack similar to the September 11 one in ferocity, any time soon. Many have ridiculed or criticized this even in mainstream circles, due to the timing (heightening fear just before Blix's major report), as fear-mongering to further justify war, while others suggest that this would be so obvious and damaging that it can't possibly be just that, and there must be some real concerns.
CIA Plays Down Some Bush Hype
In addition, as the BBC reports (October 10, 2002), the CIA has played down some of the hype that the Bush Administration has raised about Iraq using weapons of mass destruction. Instead, the CIA has said that if Iraq does posses any such weapons, it might use some of them if attacked. (Side NoteIt is interesting to note that the above-mentioned BBC report was titled "CIA undermines propaganda war", thus acknowledging that there is propaganda also from the west and the U.S. in this particular case. Yet, the media in general, including the British media, and the BBC itself has been strongly criticized by Media Lens and other media watchdogs for things like perpetuating propaganda, not questioning propaganda but treating it as news or undisputed fact, and so on. (See for example, the Media Lens alert, November 8 2002, with severe criticism about BBC being subservient to, and hence a mouthpiece of, the British government.))
And the Los Angeles Times reports (October 11, 2002) that "Senior Bush administration officials are pressuring CIA analysts to tailor their assessments of the Iraqi threat to help build a case against Saddam Hussein". (And in his State of the Union Speech, President Bush claimed that there is a link to terrorism, citing intelligence sources. This is discussed further below.)
In addition, as if reiterating The Age's report one month earlier, the LA Times continues: "Evidence of the differences between the agency and the White House surfaced publicly this week when CIA Director George J. Tenet sent a letter to lawmakers saying the Iraqi president is unlikely to strike the United States unless provoked." (Emphasis Added)
In other words then, it was just before 1991, at a time when Iraq was a U.S. ally, that Iraq was militarily a greater threat than at present. In addition, Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons against his own people was also at the time of receiving such support.
CIA and Bush Differences are Significant
Given that the Bush Administration relied a lot on intelligence sources prior to weapons inspectors going into Iraq for a number of the claims made, and given that the CIA is one of the most prominent intelligence agencies in the world, this difference would appear to be quite significant.
- If the CIA is correct that Saddam Hussein may strike if provoked, then not only is the basis for provocation different to the concerns mentioned by Bush to the public, but in addition, the path taken by the Bush Administration possibly risks the lives of ordinary American citizens as well as Iraqis, not to mention the other geopolitical fallouts war would likely lead to.
- One of the arguments put forward by proponents of war is that something must be done, for if not, then
Iraq will do something and we will all regret it.
- Yet, the CIA highlights that not only will Iraq be unlikely to use chemical weapons but that if attacked, then it might use such weapons in retaliation.
- In addition, reaction from extremist factions from the Middle East and elsewhere on an unpopular bombing campaign could itself also risk lives of people around the world.
- Furthermore, notions of regime change (which sets a dangerous precedent, both imperialist in its undertones, and giving other nations an excuse to potentially do similar things) has been put forth quite seriously in the United States by the Bush Administration. This could increase antagonisms further.
- Ultimately then, a war on Iraq then might be a self-fulfilling prophecy, risking the lives of citizens in Iraq and also the West.
Resolution 1441, the United Nations and the 'Diplomacy'
For weeks, amongst various United Nations Security Council members, there was disagreement about how to deal with the Iraq issue.
- There were disagreements between various permanent members on how any resolutions should be formulated and the objectives of them.
- The U.S. and U.K. were taking an openly hostile stance, while the other three (France, Russia and China) wanted a more measured approach, not convinced of the claims made by the other two, and not convinced of the need for military action, either. (It should also be noted that Russia, and France also have their own interests in Iraq, related to oil.)
The Will of the United Nations, or Will of the U.S Through the U.N.?
On 8 November 2002, the controversial resolution, 1441 was adopted unanimously. Surprising for a lot of people was that even Syria, the Arab member on the Council also accepted the resolution. But 1441 was the result of a lot of political maneuvering (i.e. diplomacy).
- The U.S. was initially threatening to take unilateral action (with one or two allies), which would have been illegal according to international law under the United Nations. In order to ensure that the U.S. still took that path of the U.N., other members of the Council dropped various concerns and stances they had in terms of the resolution wording. Side NoteAs foreign policy expert and author, Phyllis Bennis puts it, for most of the U.N. Security Council members, vote to support the resolution "was not about constraining Iraq, it was about constraining the U.S. The message was: if the U.S. desires to launch a massive attack, it will have to return to the U.N. and win its approval. If the president makes war without U.N. backing, it will be violating the United Nations charter and international law."
- The final resolution then is seen as a successful diplomatic effort by the U.S. and U.K. interests.
- One of the key concerns raised by most states was that the resolution should not automatically mean war and that it should require further U.N. Security Council authorization. This aspect made it into the resolution, but with some controversy.
- When the Resolution was adopted, the various member nations all gave speeches. Almost all stressed at that time, (and was broadcast on major television news stations) that there is no hidden trigger in the resolution for means automatic war.
- It was mainly because of this clause that all nations agreed to the resolution. The "will of the United Nations" hardly represents one voiceSo when we are reminded by the likes of Tony Blair, Jack Straw, Colin Powell and others of the "will of the United Nations" being expressed through this resolution, and that member states should therefore live up to their responsibilities and demand war, we should bear in mind that the resolution did not represent a common will, but a number of negotiated differences, and if anything, much of the "will" of the Security Council was to not have automatic war.
- The U.N. Security council would have to agree once weapons inspections are complete and they report a material breach.
- Even though later toward justifying war, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said a second resolution
was not needed, on the day that 1441 was passed, he himself pointed out that it was:
To those who fear this resolution is just an automatic trigger point, without any further discussion, paragraph 12 of the resolution makes it clear that is not the case.
— Tony Blair, Tony Blair's statement in response to the unanimous passing of UN resolution 1441, November 8, 2002. (You can see the full text at the Guardian newspaper web site, for example.)
- Even the U.S. representative, John Negroponte, and the U.K. representative, Sir
Jeremy Greenstock, confirmed this:
Negroponte (U.S.): As we have said on numerous occasions to Council members, this resolution contains no "hidden triggers" and no "automaticity" with respect to the use of force. If there is a further Iraqi breach, reported to the Council by UNMOVIC, the IAEA or a Member State, the matter will return to the Council for discussions as required in paragraph 12.
Greenstock (U.K.): We heard loud and clear during the negotiations the concerns about "automaticity" and "hidden triggers" - the concern that on a decision so crucial we should not rush into military action; that on a decision so crucial any Iraqi violations should be discussed by the Council. Let me be equally clear in response, as a co-sponsor with the United States of the text we have just adopted. There is no "automaticity" in this resolution. If there is a further Iraqi breach of its disarmament obligations, the matter will return to the Council for discussion as required in paragraph 12. We would expect the Security Council then to meet its responsibilities.
Side Note
The link is to a reposted PDF on this web site. The original is at the United Nations web site, at http://ods-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/PRO/N02/680/99/PDF/N0268099.pdf?OpenElement. However, this document is not accessible in a straight forward manner, and you would need to do the following convoluted steps to get to it:
- Go to http://www.un.org/Depts/dhl/resguide/scact2002.htm, which lists all the meetings conducted/actions taken by the Security Council in 2002.
- Scroll down to the November 8, 2002 document, called S/PV.4644, and select that link.
— Security Council 4644th meeting, Speeches delivered after adoption of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441, United Nations document S/PV.4644, November 8, 2002 (Emphasis Added)
Most other Security Council members reiterated this
The same link above to the speeches has transcripts for the other members. Almost all reiterated that the resolution doesn't mean automatic war, but that another decision is needed by the Council. (Those that did not specifically mention that the resolution didn't mean automatic war did not say that it meant automatic war, either.) Taking just a few examples (the rest can be seen from the same source as above):
- The French minister, Mr. Levitte, for example added, "France welcomes the fact that all ambiguity on this point and all elements of automaticity have disappeared from the resolution."
- For Mexico, Mr. Aguilar Zinser said, "this resolution also constitutes progress, as it eliminates the concept of automaticity in the use of force in response to a serious violation without the explicit agreement of the Council."
- Yet, well after those speeches, Bush, Blair and others in their governments have stated that 1441 doesn't require another U.N. resolution for war, even though almost all other U.N. ambassadors and ministers, including their own, say the opposite. Side NoteThis perhaps lends credence to those who argue that either the U.S. and U.K. were just going through the motions to attempt to get support on paper, and/or they did this to allow time to deploy their huge military machine in the Gulf, and that they intended to go to war anyway. The media rarely questions or challenges Bush or Blair when they make such assertions then. This allows propaganda to go unchallenged, thereby strengthening it.
- While the resolution does not automatically authorize war, it requires weapons inspections combined with very strict conditions for compliance.
- Yet many point out that the resolution leaves enough vagueness making it open to a lot of interpretation. Due to its strict nature, for example, it is very easy to find fault in compliance on the most minor of details, if needed.
- For an example of a detailed, almost paragraph-by-paragraph analysis of the resolution, see the Institute for Public Accuracy's analysis. (Amongst many other things, it also highlights that the Resolution does not authorize automatic war, even though Bush and Blair claim it does so, because, the final article of the Resolution says that the U.N. Security Council "Decides to remain seized of the matter", meaning that it retains jurisdiction, and has not given anyone else the power to act.)
The U.N. resolution, its vagueness, and the 'diplomatic' goings on surrounding it, also highlights concerns that the U.S. and U.K. are pushing for their own geopolitical agendas, but now under the auspices of the United Nations.
Furthermore, the credibility and authority of the U.N. in the area of international law and relations is seriously being questioned, and potentially undermined by two of the countries that helped create it in the first place.
As Karen DeYoung, of the Washington Post also highlights (January 19, 2003), the U.N. resolution "was a model of what its authors called "constructive ambiguity," allowing those favoring military action to say further U.N. agreement was not required, and those against action to say the opposite." Hence the various members were agreed to a resolution, but based on different expectations. Yet, such ambiguity amongst various nations surely threatens to pose a serious issue.
In short, the leverage of aid, military assistance and the like helped win backing. As ordinary citizens, we might find it shocking to read such things, but in the world of geopolitics and "diplomacy", there appears to be little democracy in these processes. Power and influence wins out. So, just to get the U.S. on board, the resolution has been made to have "dangerous ambiguity."
Will or no will, there will be war
Leading up to the resolution, the U.S. and British leaders had often implied that if the U.N. does not act, then they will. In the international arena, this is seen as quite threatening. An article from The Nation magazine described the Bush Administration tactics as "attempting to use UN resolutions improperly to justify an illegal pre-emptive war against Iraq". As the title of that article suggested, this was an attempt at "Subverting the UN".
Even well after that resolution had been passed, Tony Blair and others had pointed out on national television that they were prepared for action if the U.N. did not authorize war. (See further below for more on Tony Blair appearing in a television debate on this and many other issues.) Politicians such as Britain's Jack Straw and Tony Blair have repeatedly highlighted the U.N. resolution as representing the will of the international community to disarm Iraq, not as perhaps as others have seen it, as a last resort to try to get the U.S. in line with international law. Side NoteFor example, on Britain's BBC, February 12, 2003, there was a debate program that included a number of key politicians, including Jack Straw. In that program he said that Security Council members had all agreed on the importance of disarming Iraq (by supporting resolution 1441), and that they all knew that it would result in the use of force if Iraq did not comply. Yet, this went unchallenged, because as various interviews on television at the time of the resolution showed, a number of ambassadors and senior officials from various countries had indicated that they supported the resolution precisely because there wasn't an automatic clause for war, and that the ambiguous term "serious consequences" though it could definitely be interpreted to mean war, didn't necessarily mean so. Furthermore, as Asia Times highlights,
Above and beyond the prospect of a potentially massive war, the larger issue at stake is the status of UN authority. The recent diplomatic skirmishes are, in part, a fight over whether the US is willing to recognize the centrality and legal sovereignty of the Security Council to handle not just Iraqi disarmament but international peace and security issues generally. In the present resolution, the US clearly does not recognize this authority, instead maintaining a fully instrumentalist view of the international body.
For the US, this position is quite clear: the UN is to be respected only in so far as it overlaps with plans set in Washington. US Secretary of State Colin Powell has stated the matter plainly: "If Iraq violates this resolution and fails to comply, then the council has to take into immediate consideration what should be done about that, while the United States and other like-minded nations might take a judgment about what we might do about it if the council chooses not to act." In other words, the US will subjugate itself to the UN - that is, force will subordinate to law - only when it is useful.
— Ian Urbina, UN resolution: Dangerous ambiguity, Asia Times, November 12, 2002
In the above passage, the note of instrumentality is crucial.
- For most nations, the U.N.'s existence is not questionable.
- Yet, for the U.S., it is to be used as and when needed, as has been seen for decades on all sorts of international issues.
- Hence, the U.N. resolution can also be seen as yet another failure, not success, by other states to hold their ground against U.S. and British political and "diplomatic" pressures. (See the above article for more details on how "diplomacy" has been used by the powers to get the votes of the other members in the past as well as present. See also this short article by media critic, Normon Solomon)
But as well as indicating that if the U.N. does not act, the U.S. and U.K. will, some had long suggested that the U.S. and U.K. would act regardless. Even Bush's top security adviser, Dr Richard Perle, has admitted so back in November 2002. UK's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, and US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, had also stated such things, as reported by the Guardian (October 19, 2002).
And possibly complicating matters is that in October 2002, the U.S. Congress had authorized Bush to invade Iraq without U.N Security Council authorization. Yet, this is illegal in international law. As professor of politics, Stephen Zunes highlights, President Bush is violating or disrespecting the U.S. Constitution as well:
In October, the U.S. Congress, with support of both the Republican and Democratic leadership, granted President Bush the authority to invade Iraq without UN Security Council authorization. This war resolution was illegal, however, since such an invasion would violate the United Nations Charter, which was signed and ratified by the United States; Article VI of the U.S. Constitution declares such international treaties as "supreme law."
— Stephen Zunes, A U.S. Invasion of Iraq Can Be Stopped, Foreign Policy In Focus, January 16, 2003
As the above highlights, the illegality is important. As media critic David Edwards also adds:
According to international law, military conflict should be the very last resort after all other political and diplomatic options have been exhausted. But, in this case, Western politicians and journalists are happy to agree that if a "smoking gun" is found - that is any hidden weapons of mass destruction (WMD) - the US/UK will be entitled to attack. No one explains why this is so, why there are no other options, why it has to be this way - that's just how it is. According to international law, conflict should be conducted with the agreement of the United Nations, but Bush and Blair are clear that they will bypass the UN if they have to. This despite the fact that the main argument for yet another attack on Iraq is that a "material breach" (that mysterious, technical-sounding phrase) of UN Resolution 1441 would contravene international law. In the case of Iraq such a contravention requires a massive military assault killing tens or hundreds of thousands of people; in the case of the US/UK it requires a shrugging of the shoulders.
— David Edwards, The Bitter Ironies Of Propaganda, Media Lens, January 14, 2003
Furthermore, Tony Blair has constantly mentioned, in front of television cameras as well, that if he feels that a Security Council decision not to go to war is unreasonable, then in that situation he may feel obligated to go to war anyway. Not only does this have no basis in international law, but it raises questions on why he should be able to determine if something is reasonable or not, when a large part of the Security Council may have decided the other way. Why is his judgement better than theirs? What would it mean for future situations? Why even bother with the United Nations if its charter is to be validated anyway! (Under international law, a nation may only go to war on two accounts: 1) if it is under attack, 2) if the U.N. Security Council gives authorization.)
Heavy Pressure on Nations to Support the U.S. After 1441
On February 15, 2003, during the day of global protest, discussed further below, where millions took to the streets, in London, the London Mayor, Ken Livingston highlighted in a speech how the U.N. diplomacy process to get the 1441 resolution was fraught with political maneuvering, and described it as "corruption" and "bribery" of the U.N. by the U.S. and U.K. in the way they arm-twisted other Security Council members to get in line. He then warned listeners to beware of similar processes in any other subsequent calls for a U.N. resolution.
It is interesting to note that as well as pressure for support on the U.N. Security Council the U.S. had continued to using its diplomatic abilities to gain support of key nations in the area as well.
- Reuters reported (February 15, 2003) that, "The United States was offering Turkey an expanded aid package that includes about $6 billion in grants and up to $20 billion in loan guarantees to secure Ankara's support in a possible invasion of Iraq" and that "The Bush administration is finalizing separate multibillion-dollar aid packages for Israel and Jordan."
- The Catholic Institute for International Relations (CIIR) highlights (February 14, 2003) that the U.S. had offered three other members of the Council some incentives to side with the U.S. position and "approved an extra $4.1 million for the resettlement of returnees to Angola. It has given an extra $2.1 million for the care of Liberian refugees, much of which will go to Guinea. And it has promised 'more leeway' on immigration restrictions on Pakistani nationals."
Some of these sums may sound like little money, but for poor countries these can be crucial. The CIIR highlights the example of Yemen:
The US use of development aid as a political tool is reminiscent of 1990, when the US slashed aid to the Republic of Yemen as punishment for voting against Security Council resolution 678 that allowed the US to launch the first Gulf War. According to the New York Times of 29 January 1991, a senior US official is reported to have told the Yemeni ambassador to the UN, "That was the most expensive vote you ever cast."
The US cut aid to Yemen overnight to US$3 million from $42 million. Pro-US Saudi Arabia expelled one million migrant and resident Yemenis and confiscated their properties. Many were beaten and robbed as they left. More than a quarter of a million people were homeless, forming tent cities on the outskirts of Hodeidah, Yemen's coastal port.
Over ten years later, Yemen is still suffering the consequences of its opposition to the Gulf War, with economic depression and large-scale poverty.
— CIIR concerned by US pressure on smaller Security Council members to vote for war, Catholic Institute for International Relations, February 14, 2003
Of course, we expect all nations to be involved in this form of diplomacy, and indeed, nations such as France and Germany also tried to talk to the U.S. and U.K., and the other way round. Yet what is worth highlighting is that how this was (and is) spun by officials can perhaps be misleading as to the true nature of those diplomatic processes. The New York Times posted the above-mentioned Reuters article, but the previous link is to a reposted version at truthout.org because it included an interesting editor's comment, that rather than the U.S. creating a coalition of the willing, it was more like a "coalition of the bought and paid for." When thought of with that perspective, the claims of Bush and Blair of genuine support seem a bit more questionable.
The Washington D.C.-based Institute for Policy Studies is even more blunt, asking, as the title of a report, asking, is this a Coalition of the Willing or Coalition of the Coerced?
As they highlight, they find that:
- Although the Bush Administration claims that the anonymous "Coalition of the Willing" is the basis of genuine multilateralism, the report shows that most were recruited through coercion, bullying, and bribery.
- The pursuit of access to U.S. export markets is a powerful lever for influence over many countries, including Chile and Costa Rica, both of which are close to concluding free trade deals with the United States; African nations that want to maintain U.S. trade preferences; and Mexico, which depends on the U.S. market for about 80 percent of its export sales.
- The populations of the countries in the so-called "Coalition of the Willing" make up only about 10 percent of the world's population. Opponents of the U.S. position currently include the leading economies of four continents (Germany, Brazil, China, and South Africa).
- President Bush could make or break the chances of Eastern European members of the "Coalition of the Willing" that are eager to become members of NATO. In order for these nations to join the military alliance, Bush must ask the Senate for approval.
The following summarized from links provided below, are some of the areas that were targeted to try and persuade undecided or opposed countries in the Security Council by the U.S., U.K., Spain etc using their "diplomatic" abilities:
Guniea: More money and fewer human rights
The United States is top of the list in terms of aid to this, one of the 15 poorest countries in the world, with 50 million dollars. There are 300,000 refugees from Liberia and Sierra Leone, and recently, Washington had promised increased aid to help deal with this. In addition, human rights in Guniea is not great. These could all be overlooked for a favorable vote.Angola: Oil Contracts
Emerging from a 27 year civil war, with millions of refugees, this nation depends a lot on America, economically. It is also one of the most corrupt countries. Exxon recently concluded a 3 billion dollar oil contract. Angola is the sixth largest supplier of oil to the U.S. (ahead of Kuwait), selling some 5 billion dollars each year to the U.S.Mexico: Immigration Agreement Suspension
As detailed further below, Mexico has been subtly threatened or pressured that if it doesn't side with the Americans it could "stir up feelings" against Mexicans in the U.S. In addition, some 80% of Mexican exports go to the U.S. Mexico was also hoping the U.S. would follow up on its earlier promise of amnesty for the large number of illegal Mexican immigrants in the U.S.Chile: Free-Trade Agreement
One of Chile's main economic concerns is to join the American Free Trade Agreement (FTA). However, while it is close to being a done deal, they are waiting on the U.S. Congress to ratify that agreement. This can therefore be used as a lever against Chile.Cameroon: Bartered Commercial Assistance
Cameroon sells some 2.3 billion dollars of oil to Italy, France and Spain in that order. Italy and Spain are strong supporters of war. Its depleting oil reserves means that it will depend on an oil pipeline from Chad. This is being built by Exxon and Texaco Chevron.Pakistan: Kashmir in the Balance
Despite what militants in Pakistan might think (and a large majority of the ordinary citizens), the government needs U.S. support. The risk of going against the U.S. could even mean the Americans get even more friendly with India, in an already tense situation with Kashmir and other issues.- For more details about the above, see for example, the following:
- Security Council minnows under pressure in UN vote scramble, an interview with Martin Walker of UPI, by Australian Broadcasting Company (ABC), March 10, 2003
- Concerns About The Undecided Six to be Seduced, by Pascal Riche, La Liberation, March 6, 2003. (Link is to translated version of the French original.)
Consider one of the ways in which the U.S. tried to pressure its neighbor Mexico, which also has a seat on the U.N. Security Council:
Last week The Economist quoted an American diplomat who warned that if Mexico didn't vote for a U.S. resolution it could "stir up feelings" against Mexicans in the United States. He compared the situation to that of Japanese-Americans who were interned after 1941, and wondered whether Mexico "wants to stir the fires of jingoism during a war."
Incredible stuff, but easy to dismiss as long as the diplomat was unidentified. Then came President Bush's Monday interview with Copley News Service. He alluded to the possibility of reprisals if Mexico didn't vote America's way, saying, "I don't expect there to be significant retribution from the government" - emphasizing the word "government." He then went on to suggest that there might, however, be a reaction from other quarters, citing "an interesting phenomena taking place here in America about the French . . . a backlash against the French, not stirred up by anybody except the people."
And Mr. Bush then said that if Mexico or other countries oppose the United States, "there will be a certain sense of discipline."
These remarks went virtually unreported by the ever-protective U.S. media, but they created a political firestorm in Mexico. The White House has been frantically backpedaling, claiming that when Mr. Bush talked of "discipline" he wasn't making a threat. But in the context of the rest of the interview, it's clear that he was.
— Paul Krugman, Let Them Hate as Long as They Fear, New York Times, March 7, 2003
Chile, another nation on the Security Council also found pressure being applied to it to side for war. Inter Press Service (IPS) reported (March 10, 2003) that Chile senator Carlos Ominami said that "Chile, like the other non-permanent members of the UN Security Council, are subjected to all sorts of pressures from Washington to vote in favour of the resolution against the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein."
The pressure applied does not always mean though that the U.S. would automatically or easily get its way.
- The BBC had reported that while the Turkish government were interested in a large deal, the population was as much as 94% opposed to a war with Iraq, making Turkey's position difficult.
- In addition, Turkey had said it wanted to enter part of Northern Iraq, to "secure its interests" to which the Kurds there, already controling northern parts of Iraq, feeling threatened, were very strongly opposed, warning of clashes if that happens. The Kurds and Turkey have long had violent disputes in that area.
- Three African nations on the U.N. Security Council, Guinea, Cameroon and Angola, were part of a 52-nation African summit held by France, where they indicated support for France's stance.
But the media described the processes more benignly, presenting it as a challenge for Bush and Blair who would be under intense pressure to use more "diplomacy".
The U.S. had used its diplomatic muscle and abilities to try and obtain support, while claiming it as "willing" support. Some nations though, appeared to have a chance to have a go at their own diplomacy and try and use this situation to their own advantage, sensing opportunities they rarely get. Channel 4 News in UK for example, pointed out (February 26, 2003) how Mexico tried to highlight George Bush's promise of amnesty for millions of illegal Mexican immigrants in the U.S. but never gave it. This was therefore seen as an opportunity to push for it. (In the end, nothing came of it.) Turkey, while on the whole being pressured with incentives was trying to play the game as well, with its own demands. But this does not negate that the U.S. strongly pressured for international community support, highlighting both that international opinion was against war, and that the U.S., U.K. and other supporters of war are less than honest when describing a supposed coalition as "willing".
U.S. Evesdropping on Other Council Members
It was revealed in a leaked memo, obtained by the British paper, The Observer (March 2 2003) that the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) had targetted other Council member nations for surveillance by tapping phones and intercepting emails, etc, in a bid to find ways to pressure those countries to back the U.S. plans for war against Iraq.
The Observer described this as "dirty tricks" adding that, "The disclosure comes at a time when diplomats from the countries have been complaining about the outright 'hostility' of US tactics in recent days to persuade then to fall in line, including threats to economic and aid packages."
In addition, the above-mentioned IPS highlights that this is not new, and continues that, "Former [Chilean] foreign minister and Christian-democrat senator Gabriel Valdés, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the government should present a formal protest before the UN about the U.S. espionage operations. 'I served 10 years at the United Nations. I was under-secretary general, and there were continuous complaints from countries that the U.S. government was tapping their telephones,' said the senator, father of Juan Gabriel Valdés, Chile's current ambassador to the UN and directly affected by the spying."
Side Note
It is interesting to note also, that the American mainstream media has also admitted this is not new and has gone on for years. However, they have used that reason to therefore shun the story. This is regarded as major news for many around the world, yet the U.S. audience will miss a key tactic used by their leaders, who, if successful, will be able to claim international support, whereas, that would be questionable given such tactics.
In fact, the media also tried to discredit the popular story by pointing out spelling mistakes etc, but this was because The Observer had merely anglicized the spelling for the British audience. This is usually easy to spot, and so suggests that the American media were not interested in highlighting the story.
This has been serious enough an issue for the United Nations to start an inquiry into the American spying.
UN Security Council is Undemocratic; General Assembly Harder to Buy Out
This also once again highlights the undemocratic nature of the United Nations Security Council.
- For years, many have pointed out that the idea of five permanent members forms a non-democratic "nuclear club" which reflects old power structures.
- Veto powers by those five also add to the non-democratic nature.
- Finally, in situations such as this Iraq crisis, the more inclusive U.N. General Assembly, which is where all members get a voice (but not a vote), would be harder to buy out.
The State of Iraq's Weapons Programs?
Inspection Process So Far Reveals No Reason For War
In March 1999, UNSCOM, reported on the state of the weapons inspections program to date and revealed the following:
The IAEA has been able, in the course of its eight years of extensive inspection activities, to develop a technically coherent picture of Iraq's clandestine nuclear programme covering the stages from the production and procurement of natural uranium compounds, through Iraq's development of enrichment processes, to the design and experimental work for the eventual weaponization of highly enriched uranium. Iraq's programme had been very well funded and was aimed at the development and production of a small arsenal of nuclear weapons, but there were no indications that Iraq had achieved its programme's objective. Most of the IAEA activities involving the destruction, removal and rendering harmless of the components of Iraq's nuclear weapons programme which to date have been revealed and destroyed were completed by the end of 1992. In February 1994, the IAEA completed the removal from Iraq of all weapon-usable nuclear material essentially research reactor fuel. On the basis of its findings, the Agency is able to state that there is no indication that Iraq possesses nuclear weapons or any meaningful amounts of weapon-usable nuclear material or that Iraq has retained any practical capability (facilities or hardware) for the production of such material. [Emphasis Added]
... With regard to ... verification of the material balance of proscribed missiles and related operational assets, UNSCOM was able to destroy or otherwise account for: (a) 817 out of 819 imported operational missiles of proscribed range; (b) all declared mobile launchers for proscribed Al Hussein class missiles, including 14 operational launchers; the disposition of 9 of the 10 imported trailers used for the indigenous production of mobile launchers; and the destruction of 56 fixed missile launch sites; (c) 73 to 75 chemical and biological warheads of the declared 75 operational special warheads for Al Hussein class missiles; 83 of the 107 imported and some 80 of the 103 indigenously produced conventional warheads declared by Iraq to be in its possession at the time of the adoption of resolution 687.
... UNSCOM has supervised or been able to certify the destruction,, removal or rendering harmless of large quantities of chemical weapons (CW), their components and major chemical weapons production equipment as follows: (a) over 88,000 filled and unfilled chemical munitions; (b) over 600 tonnes of weaponized and bulk CW agents; (c) some 4,000 tonnes of precursor chemicals; (d) some 980 pieces of key production equipment; (e) some 300 pieces of analytical instruments. The prime CW development and production complex in Iraq was dismantled and closed under UNSCOM supervision and other identified facilities have been put under monitoring. It was pointed out that UNSCOM has been able to establish material balances of major weapon-related elements of Iraq's CW programme only on the basis of parameters as declared by Iraq but not fully verified by UNSCOM.
UNSCOM has been able to make considerable progress in the verification of other CW-related activities in Iraq, among them the uncovering of Iraq's VX project, CW research and development projects, Iraq's procurement network and efforts for its CW programme. On the basis of all these findings, UNSCOM obtained a good understanding of the major parameters of Iraq's CW programme.
... UNSCOM uncovered the proscribed biological weapons programme of Iraq, whose complete existence had been concealed by Iraq until 1995. This and subsequent work has permitted it to obtain significant insights into Iraq's biological warfare capabilities, including a broad understanding of the main delivery systems. UNSCOM has also gained a detailed, albeit incomplete, picture of Iraq's procurement activities for its biological warfare programme.
UNSCOM ordered and supervised the destruction of Iraq's main declared BW production and development facility, Al Hakam. Some 60 pieces of equipment from three other facilities involved in proscribed BW activities as well as some 22 tonnes of growth media for BW production collected from four other facilities were also destroyed. As a result, the declared facilities of Iraq's BW programme have been destroyed and rendered harmless.
... in spite of well-known difficult circumstances, UNSCOM and IAEA have been effective in uncovering and destroying many elements of Iraq's proscribed weapons programmes in accordance with the mandate provided by the Security Council. It is the panel's understanding that IAEA has been able to devise a technically coherent picture of Iraq's nuclear weapons programme. UNSCOM has achieved considerable progress in establishing material balances of Iraq's proscribed weapons. Although important elements still have to be resolved, the bulk of Iraq's proscribed weapons programmes has been eliminated. In this connection, reference was made to a possible "point of impasse" in the further investigation of these issues under the current procedures which might correspond to an apparent diminishing return In recent years.
— Amorim Report; Report Concerning Disarmament and Current and Future Ongoing Monitoring and Verification Issues, United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), S/1999/356, March 27, 1999
The above indicates that a great deal of Iraq's capabilities had already been destroyed. The report no doubt highlights that not everything was destroyed, but does suggest that the inspection process had been effective in contributing to the containment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program.
As detailed further below, a key defector, often cited by Colin Powell and others, Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, General Hussein Kamel, the former director of Iraq's Military Industrialization Corporation had stated categorically in 1995 when he defected to Jordan that "All weapons - biological, chemical, missile, nuclear were destroyed."
Even by the beginning of 2003, Hans Blix reported at the United Nations (January 9, 2003) that they had so far found no "smoking gun". Since then, with continued inspections, to date there had been no compelling reason to justify war. Blix has highlighted on many occassions that there were still some questions outstanding and that although Iraq has been cooperating, they need to provide more substance and need to be more forthcoming and urgent about it.
January 27, 2003 Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, and Mohamed El Baradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), delivered a report to the U.N. Security Council on the inspection process so far.
- On the one hand they pointed out that Iraq has largely cooperated with arms experts.
- In addition, according to El Baradei, there was nothing to suggest a clandestine nuclear weapons programme
in Iraq, though indicating that Iraq should be more "pro-active" in helping nuclear experts do
their work.
Side Note
From the D.C.-based Center for Defence Information (CDI):Neither inspector used the words "material breach." [in their reports to the U.N. Security Council.] ElBaradei said that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found "no evidence that Iraq has revived its nuclear weapons program since the elimination of the program in the 1990s." This assessment contradicts an assertion to the contrary made by Bush last October. Most importantly, ElBaradei suggested that inspections be allowed to continue. "Inspections are time-consuming, but" said ElBaradei, "if successful, can ensure disarmament through peaceful means."
— CDI's Inspections Update, Center for Defense Information, Inspections Update #5, January 30, 2003 (Emphasis Added)
In addition, Reuters reports (January 30, 2003) that in an interview El Baradei had with BBC Radio 4, he said that "in his view, Iraq was not as yet in material breach of a U.N. resolution on disarmament, contrary to what Britain and the United States have argued." An individual cannot determine whether Iraq is in material breach or not, as it has to be a U.N. Security Council decision. But at the same time, the U.S. and Britain also cannot make such claims, which is the point here.
- Yet, Hans Blix also highlighted concerns about unaccounted-for chemical weapons, and processes such as interviewing scientists, as only a small number had been interviewed so far.
- They both urged for more time to complete the inspection process, which they highlighted as being quite successful in the past at eliminating most of Iraq's large weapons, and should therefore be given more time to continue.
- Their report was also seen by American and British officials as more proof that Iraq was defying the United Nations while other nations seemed less hard-lined.
- However, as the Sydney Morning Herald also reports, (February 1, 2003), Hans Blix has said that
the "US is misquoting my Iraq report"
Summarizing from their article:
- "Dr Blix took issue with what he said were US Secretary of State Colin Powell's claims that the inspectors had found that Iraqi officials were hiding and moving illicit materials within and outside of Iraq to prevent their discovery. He said that the inspectors had reported no such incidents."
- Blix also said that "he had not seen convincing evidence that Iraq was sending weapons scientists to other countries to prevent them from being interviewed."
- And continuing on from the above, the article continues that "Nor had he any reason to believe, as President George Bush charged in his State of the Union speech, that Iraqi agents were posing as scientists, or that his inspection agency had been penetrated by Iraqi agents and that sensitive information might have been leaked to Baghdad." (Side Note Perhaps an additional irony of Bush's claim is that in 1998 it wasn't Baghdad intelligence penetrating the inspection agency, but western intelligence agents, as mentioned further up.)
Pressure by a number of members of the U.N. Security Council allowed for another report by Hans Blix and Mohamed El Baradei on February 14, 2003, which would be a key report, giving strong indications of whether or not war might occur. However, just two days after their January report, George Bush, in his State of the Union Speech made claims that were counter to the findings of Blix and El Baradei. (Bush's State of the Union Speech is discussed further below.)
The Washington Post also reports (February 12, 2003) that on February 11, 2003, just a few days before this key presentation by Blix, the U.S. National Security adviser, Condoleezza Rice had an unannounced meeting with Hans Blix, "to press chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix to acknowledge in a Security Council briefing Friday that Iraq has failed to voluntarily scrap its prohibited chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs, according to U.S. and U.N. diplomats." However this is controversial.
- This tactic "underscored the Bush administration's concern that the Swedish diplomat's report to the council on Friday, while critical of Iraq, may not be decisive enough to persuade wavering Security Council members to support an immediate move to war", as the Post continues.
- This unfair pressure to get Blix to tailor the report to suit the objectives of the Bush Administration, is described by editors of Truthout.org, a media watchdog, as "at its core, ruthless and unacceptable" and that this is a "reason that the US is today, widely viewed around the world as dictatorial."
Like the January report, the February 14, 2003 report by Blix and El Baradei again confirmed no "smoking gun" which could justify war, and no nuclear weapons program.
- Blix politely criticized some of the claims Colin Powell had made (as "evidence") in his presentation to the U.N. Security Council a few days earlier (this is also discussed further below).
- All in all, it would seem that there has not been enough to justify a war, though both inspectors highlighted the need for continued pressure on Iraq.
- They further highlighted the need for continued inspection process (implying not military action), and also suggested that these processes were working.
- This of course did not go down well with the American and British positions.
- The report did not trigger a move by the U.S. and U.K. of a second U.N. Security Council resolution, this time to authorize war.
- Tony Blair had stressed in a televised interview (detailed further below) that if the U.N. Security Council would not authorize war, then under some conditions, the U.S. and U.K. may take action anyway.
- While this has been criticized as arrogant and a violation of international law, that had not deterred Blair from taking that stance, though, as noted below in more detail, the February 15 report has been so damning to the U.S. and U.K. position, and not highlighted any imminent threat, that his propaganda tactic has now appeared to change course.
- The following day, in the largest protest against war to date (at time of writing), some 10 million people turned out in various cities around the world, even in countries already against war. This further angered officials such as Tony Blair (also discussed further below).
Another major report by Blix and El Baradei on March 7, 2003 revealed that
- The inspection process is having a positive impact, but it would not take weeks, which the Anglo-American position demands, but it would not take years that opposers also demand. Instead, it would be a matter of months.
- That Iraq was showing signs of buckling from international pressure into accelerating cooperation with weapons inspections and conceeding a "substantial measure of disarmament".
- El Baradei mentioned that again there was no evidence of a revival of a nuclear weapons program. He had stressed this many times on previous occassions, but the American and British position is that regardless of what El Baradei has said, they believe otherwise.
- There was enough in this report to fuel both war mongering and anti war positions. For example, Colin Powell said that Blix and El Baradei's reports highlighted "a catalogue of non co-operation" whereas the French foreign minister, while French/German and others highlighted that the same report showed that instead the inspection process was actually working.
- Blix did highlight that while there was cooperation, there was not the "immediate" cooperation that the U.N. resolution 1441 demanded. (Whether this would be enough to justify war, which Colin Powell hinted, is another issue, which the rest of this page attempts to shed some light on.)
- In addition, interviewing scientists was still proving difficult, because even though there were no Iraqi minders, the scientists were being bugged.
- But significantly, the reports dismissed some major claims by the U.S.:
- Blix said there was no evidence to that Iraq was hiding biological and chemical weapons in mobile laboratories and underground shelters, a claim made by Colin Powell earlier in February. (Side NoteThis would also negate the need to use small nuclear weapons by the U.S., as they said they would, which is also discussed further below.)
- Also highlighted was that that claims about Iraq trying to purchase Uranium from Africa were based on documents that were "not authentic". Obtaining Uranium from Africa was something raised, for example, by Tony Blair in his dossier earlier in 2002, also discussed below, yet Blix here is suggested that the intelligence was fake, having been forged and fabricated, as the Washington Post describes it (March 8, 2003).
- The IAEA also mentioned that there was no evidence of resumed nuclear activities in buildings rebuilt since 1988, and no evidence that Iraq had attempted to import uranium since 1990.
- In addition, detailed examination of imported aluminium tubes revealed that they were not destined for use in enriching uranium, which has been another claim by the U.S. and U.K.
In sum then, it would seem that some of the main claims to justify war seems to have proven hollow.
The weapons programs took decades to develop with a lot of outside assistance, which is now all lacking. Continued inspections, repeatedly stressed by the current weapons inspection teams and some nations, therefore has some merit to it as an alternative to war. War being a last resort, as we are also reminded by Bush and Blair themselves, would mean that ideally weapons inspections should perhaps be given a further chance. Peaceful disarmament is the phrase used by many, including war mongers, as the preferred way.
No Nuclear Weapons Program
As detailed elsewhere on this section, months of intrusive inspections by the IAEA has revealed no nuclear program in Iraq. In addition, as mentioned by Blix and El Baradei in their report to the U.N. Security Council in March, 2003 that
- There was no evidence to that Iraq was hiding biological and chemical weapons in mobile laboratories and underground shelters, a claim made by Colin Powell earlier in February.
- Claims about Iraq trying to purchase Uranium from Africa were based on documents that were "not authentic".
- There was no evidence of resumed nuclear activities in buildings rebuilt since 1988.
- There was no evidence that Iraq had attempted to import uranium since 1990.
- Detailed examination of imported aluminium tubes revealed that they were not destined for use in enriching uranium.
These were all claims that the U.S. and U.K. had made in various "intelligence" briefings.
Iraq Declaration
During the U.N. investigations in Iraq in December 2002, Iraq had to produce a declaration of its weapons programs and list its position and detail what it had, what it was using etc. Iraq produced a 12,000 page declaration.
Both Sides Not Cooperating
On December 19, Hans Blix, head of the UN weapons inspection team pointed out that much of what was in that declaration was not anything new, and even the Iraqi information ministry accepted that, saying that most of the report listed details from previous years to 1998, which the UN already knew about. However, a number of controversies occured during this period:
- Hans Blix pointed out or implied on public television, when interviewed, that while Iraq had to date been complying and cooperating with the inspection process, the declaration left many questions unanswered by Iraq.
- However, Blix also implied that nations like the U.S. and U.K. were not cooperating because they were withholding intelligence they have claimed to have about Iraq's various weapons of mass destruction. Though at around that time the U.S. eventually announced that it would share intelligence data.
- Yet, all the way into February, 2003, The Independent reports (February 14, 2003) that senior Democrats in the U.S., including Senators, have accused that the CIA of "sabotaging weapons inspections in Iraq by refusing to co-operate fully with the UN and withholding crucial information about Saddam Hussein's arsenal." In addition, "Led by Senator Carl Levin, the Democrats accused the CIA of making an assessment that the inspections were unlikely to be a success and then ensuring they would not be. They have accused the CIA director of lying about what information on the suspected location of weapons of mass destruction had been passed on."
- In March 2003, as mentioned further up, when Blix reported back to the U.N. Security Council, he pointed out that some intelligence was "not authentic" such as the intelligence of Iraq supposedly trying to get Uranium from Africa.
- Against accusations of not providing sufficient information, the CIA rejects those charges. The LA Times reports (March 8, 2003) that "In a letter to key lawmakers released Thursday night, CIA Director George J. Tenet said the agency has 'provided detailed information on all of the high-value and moderate sites' to the United Nations."
- However, the same LA Times article continues, "A U.S. intelligence official said some of the information the CIA has compiled is of such low value that it would not be useful to inspectors."
- This suggests that perhaps there is not compelling intelligence against Iraq in the way it is claimed, or that the U.S. and U.K. are not cooperating, as they are determined to go to war anyway, and showing the inspection process to be limited may be to their advantage.
U.S. Intercepted Report Giving Edited Copies to the Rest of U.N. Security Council
Another controversy was over the way the whole Iraqi declaration was dealt with:
- The United States took the declaration, wanting to copy it itself, rather than let the U.N. do it.
- Copies were made and given to the other permanent members of the Security Council.
- However, they gave an edited version of the document to the rest of the UN Security Council members.
- There is no basis or right for a nation to intercept such documentation and this caused a lot of uproar in many circles.
- The edited version was cut down to about 3,000 or 4,000 pages.
- Apparently one concern was Iraq's details of where its weapons and facilities were procured and by whom.
They had listed a large number of nations and this could potentially be embarrassing to say the least.
Side Note
The United States was able to do all this, some believe, because of the influence it was able to exert on the country that currently serves as the chair of the UN Security Council at this time, Colombia:
Colin Powell returned from a short visit to Bogota on December 4 where he had announced major increases in American military aid to Colombia. Colombia presently serves as the chair of the Security Council. In exchange for the military support, Colombia presumably promised to let the U.S. steal Iraq's report to "edit" it, i.e. to practise censorship.
— Jorgen Johansen and Jan Oberg, A UN mandate does not make war on Iraq right!, Press Info #168, Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research (TFF), December 28, 2002
Iraq Document Detailed Nations and Companies That Helped To Arm It
But another concern to the U.S. about the Iraq document was that it would reveal that the U.S. and other nations had helped to arm Saddam Hussein in the past:
When Iraq handed UNMOVIC its 12,200-page report on weapons research and procurement, it knew fully well that the U.S. would seize the document from the U.N. and proceed to censor it. Why the censorship? Weapons proliferation, we are told. While that is partially true, Iraq hinted early on that its massive document would list each and every government, private and public firm and/or institution that helped Iraq in its 30-year weapons program.
The U.S. had to remove the document from the hands of the international community because it contained vital information that could undermine the current administration. The other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council did not object much to this U.S. move because they knew that their names and their firms also helped arm Iraq.
— Firas Al-Atraqchi, The U.S. will not release vital evidence against Iraq, YellowTimes.org, January 21, 2003
Andreas Zumach, a journalist at the Berlin (Germany) newspaper, the Die Tageszeitung managed to get hold of key parts of the 12,000 page report which are believed not to have been received by the non-permanent members of the Council.
- In his articles for the paper, he lists the various countries and their companies that gave Iraq assistance in various ways to develop weapons of mass destruction, such as biological weapons, chemical and other abilities.
- The U.S. radio program Democracy Now! translated the news reports, and quoting from there,
Zumach points out, amongst other things that,
The report gives us a complete overview of these supplies for the first time. In particular it names the 24 US companies and when and to whom in Iraq the supplies were delivered. And it makes clear how strongly the Reagan and the first Bush administrations supported the arming of Iraq, from 1980 up to the Gulf conflict of 1990/91. Substantial construction units for the Iraqi nuclear weapon and rocket programs were supplied with permission of the government in Washington. The poison Anthrax for the arming of Iraq with biological weapons stemmed from US laboratories. Iraqi military and armament experts were trained in the US and there received know-how having to do with their domestic arms programs.
— Andreas Zumach, USA censors Iraq Report , Die Tageszeitung, December 18, 2002. [Link is to informaal translations from Democracy Now!]
- A list of the various nations and companies involved can be seen at this link from the Die Tageszeitung web site. (Note the article is in German.)
- In an interview with Zumach, by Democracy Now!, "Zumach also said the U.S. Departments of Energy, Defense, Commerce, and Agriculture quietly helped arm Iraq. U.S. government nuclear weapons laboratories Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos and Sandia trained traveling Iraqi nuclear scientists and gave non-fissile material for construction of a nuclear bomb." (Emphasis Added).
- There were also more than 80 German companies contributed to chemical weapons and missile development.
The issue raised of omissions in the Iraq report for data after 1998 is of concern of course. Iraq maintains that there is no omission because there has been no weapons of mass destruction development since 1998 hence there is nothing to report. Yet, Blix and others have legitimate questions about what the status of certain items now is and where the documentary proof is.
In addition, at the United Nations press conferences, as Inter Press Service (IPS) reports, (December 19, 2002) the U.S. was the only country to accuse Iraq of being in "material breach" of its obligations. That IPS article also mentions an interview with Francis Boyle, professor of international law at the University of Illinois College of Law who points out that "it is for the Security Council to determine whether or not there has been a material breach of these resolutions" not the United States or any other individual nation. Furthermore, Boyle adds that the Bush Administration "has no right to deputise itself as the judge, jury and lord high executioner of international law".
Hans Blix did indicate in his interview to the press at the United Nations (19 December, 2002) that his report to the Security Council was not the final report and more analysis will still be done. Yet, whether these concerns can justify a war or not is perhaps highlighted by the following:
"Iraq doesn't account for hundreds of artillery shells filled with mustard gas that inspectors know it had. Iraq said in the past it had lost them!"
No need to question if these missing artillery shells are being proposed in all seriousness as a reason for launching a massive war. No need to question if use of these awesome weapons - described by arms inspectors as battlefield weaponry of minimal importance - might be deterred by the US's 6,144 nuclear warheads. No need to question why, if these weapons are such a dread threat, weapons inspectors have been allowed to come and go as they please in Iraq.
— David Edwards, Message From America, Media Lens, December 19, 2002
Nuclear Documents at Scientists Home
In addition, around the beginning of 2003 new documents discovered at the home of an Iraqi nuclear scientist raised more concerns, due to fears of possibly relating to the development of nuclear weapons. The scientist has been adamant that these were old personal documents, and mostly concerned research into technology that proved infeasible. UN officials acknowledged to the press (e.g. BBC, January 19, 2003) that much of what was in these documents were known. A concern has been that some of these documents would be found in a home of a private citizen, and so what else could be in such places.
Discovery of Empty "Chemical Warheads" No Big Deal Says Blix
On 16th January 2003, the UN inspections teams discovered empty warheads that could potentially be used to deliver chemical and biological weapons.
- As reported by AFP (January 18, 2003), the White House found the discovery to be "troubling and serious".
- At that same time, in contrast, "inspections chief Hans Blix downplayed the find as 'not a big deal'" as the AFP also reported.
- And just some two weeks later, Hans Blix confirmed his initial reaction. As the New York Times
reported on an interview with Blix,
Mr. Blix said that his examination of a liquid-filled warhead that inspectors had discovered in a bunker on Jan. 16 found no signs of any chemical weapons agent. The other 11 warheads found in the bunker were empty, he said, adding that scores of samples his team had taken across Iraq in the past two months had turned up "no trace" of either chemical or biological agents.
— Judith Miller and Julia Preston, Blix Says He Saw Nothing to Prompt a War, New York Times, January 31, 2003
Side Note
It is also interesting to note some points made by William Rivers Pitt, author of the book 'War on Iraq', which has been a best seller on a number of newspaper lists, such as the New York Times, Washington Post and others. He points out that the a lot of the mainstream have been referring to the discovered weapons as "chemical warheads" when in fact they are artillery munitions, and that even using the term warhead is misleading. In addition, Iraq is allowed to have certain weapons, including the ones found. The implication then, is that the use of the term "chemical warhead" is subtle propaganda.
(Further below, in the part that looks at George Bush's 2003 State of the Union Speech, there is more information about unaccounted for chemical and biological weapons.)
Short Shelf Life of Some Chemical Weapons
Scott Ritter, a former UN weapons inspector in 1998 has pointed out that a number of chemical weapons that Saddam Hussein may have hidden from inspectors in 1998 would now be useless as some of them only have a 3-year shelf life. Given that such a large quantity was already destroyed by 1998, and more may have become useless, to rebuild all that (this time without support from key powers), would appear to be rather difficult.
In addition, Professor Glen Rangwala, a lecturer in politics at Cambridge University in Britain provides detailed analysis of the state of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Amongst many things he notes that
If the allegations that Iraq possessed a stockpile of illicit weapons were to be true, then the UK and US would need to present credible evidence that Iraq had managed to stabilise its chemical and biological agents to a greater extent than it is previously thought to have done. The UK dossier does not make this claim, except as an unsubstantiated assertion that Iraq had "the knowledge and capability to add stabiliser to nerve agent and other chemical warfare agents which would prevent such decomposition." The fact that this assertion falls short of the claim that Iraq actually achieved the stabilisation of its chemical agents can be taken as an acknowledgement that no evidence has been discovered - after over 7 years of intrusive inspections and 11 years of intelligence gathering - to demonstrate Iraq's retention of stabilised chemical or biological agents.
Furthermore, the claims about Iraq possessing a stockpile of biological weapons created before 1991 may suffer from the same problems as discussed for the notion of a stockpile of chemical weapons, above.
— Glen Rangwala, Claims and evaluations of Iraq's proscribed weapons, February 6, 2003
Getting Information from Defectors
While there have been occasional mention by officials and mainstream reports that defectors from Iraq show that Saddam Hussein is indeed developing nuclear weapons, it seems that less reported in the mainstream is that some other defectors actually argue that point. Imad Khadduri, for example, a former nuclear scientist in Iraq worked at the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission from 1968 until 1998, when he left Iraq. He admits he was involved in various programs including nuclear weapons research as well as meeting U.N. weapons inspectors. However, in an article for YellowTimes.org he finds that "present allegations about Iraq's nuclear capability, as continuously advanced by the Americans and the British, to be ridiculous." He argues that the whole state apparatus was redirected to rebuild other destroyed industries and in addition, the nuclear scientists and others working on these programs have been reduced to poverty and lack of updated skills.
As the Bush administration looks toward, and encourages more defectors that support their view, the defector's own agendas must also be considered. Khidhir Hamza, for example, author of Saddam's Bombmaker, has written that Saddam may have up to three nuclear weapons and so must be removed from power. However, Khadduri, mentioned above, has written claiming Hamza to be lying. Khadduri claims that Hamza was not a high level nuclear scientist in the Iraqi Atomic Energy Commission, as he claimed, but a low-level official, as Khadduri knew him quite well.
Responding to Colin Powell's presentation on February 5, 2003 to the United Nations Security Council of supposed evidence, the Washington Post (February 6, 2003), noted that Jonathan Tucker, a former weapons inspector and currently a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace said that "the sources apparently were defectors, who have not always been reliable or credible" and as the article title had highlighted, "despite defectors' accounts, evidence remains anecdotal."
Key Defector Often Cited by Powell and Others Said Opposite to the Claims. WMDs Were Destroyed
Perhaps one of the biggest revelations (and one of the most silent in the mainstream media) has been how perhaps the most key defector, Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, General Hussein Kamel, the former director of Iraq's Military Industrialization Corporation had stated categorically in 1995 that "All weapons - biological, chemical, missile, nuclear were destroyed." He said this in an interview to UNSCOM and IAEA after he defected to Jordan in in August 1995. When he had returned to Iraq in 1996 he was assassinated. He was no friend of the Iraq regime, for in that interview, he said "I can state publicly I will work against the regime." Yet on the issue of weapons of mass destruction, he is clear that Iraq destroyed these weapons after the Gulf War.
This revelation is key because, even if some defectors have been unreliable, this particular person, at such a high level, has been cited by George Bush, Tony Blair, Colin Powell, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and many others as one of their most reliable intelligence sources on Iraqs weapons, and as proof that Iraq has not disarmed and that inspections cannot disarm it.
Examples of the citing of Kamel by Bush, Blair, Powell and others
Prime Minister Tony Blair in his statement to the House of Commons on 25 February 2003, said: "It was only four years later after the defection of Saddam's son-in-law to Jordan, that the offensive biological weapons and the full extent of the nuclear programme were discovered."
President Bush declared in a 7 October 2002 speech: "In 1995, after several years of deceit by the Iraqi regime, the head of Iraq's military industries defected. It was then that the regime was forced to admit that it had produced more than 30,000 liters of anthrax and other deadly biological agents. The inspectors, however, concluded that Iraq had likely produced two
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